Santorum Proves that the Fat Lady is in Bad Voice

Posted on March 25, 2012 by

By Mark Rhoads

How dare Rick Santorum win a state by 22 points over Mitt Romney when every pundit in the world says Romney should measure his drapes for the West Wing. According to the CNN exit poll, the only group Santorum lost to Romney were those voters making more than $200,000 per year.

Louisiana also puts to rest the myth that Santorum is losing among Catholics. He carried both Catholics and evangelicals, men and women, urban and rural, very conservative and moderate. Newt Gingrich has slipped for spoiler to irrelevant by dropping from 30 percent in Alabama and Mississippi to 16 percent, third place, and no delegates in Louisiana. Yet Newt is still telling every animal at every zoo he alone is able to debate Obama. Such delusions are best treated in clinical case studies.

This Santorum victory in Louisiana will get zero coverage on cable news. (There is no media bias for Romney and it is all in my imagination.)

The fact remains that so far Romney has won only three states (Arizona, Alaska, and Idaho) that carried for the GOP in 2008. Santorum has now won eleven states, all but two of which carried for the GOP in 2008 with Minnesota and Iowa as the exceptions. The other nine Santorum states are reliably deep red states. The territories won by Romney have delegates but not electoral votes.

Exit polls did ask questions about the Etch-A-Sketch flap and it did hurt Romney in Louisiana. It might not have if it did not reinforce the empty suit stand for nothing image that Romney already has.

Posted in Elections, Mark Rhoads, Politics | Tagged , ,

Gingrich has overstayed his welcome with an ironic result

Posted on March 24, 2012 by

By Ken Feltman

The big news from Louisiana this weekend will not be Rick Santorum’s victory. He is cruising toward a big win. Conservative voters are abandoning Gingrich for Santorum, with a smaller number going to Mitt Romney.

Most voters are done with Gingrich. One put it this way: “Gingrich is like the guest who never leaves.” Another said “Why doesn’t he get the message?” A Republican official said Gingrich is in danger of “destroying any goodwill he has left.”
Gingrich may not care. But Romney and Santorum do care and will watch how the former Gingrich supporters split in Louisiana. So far, polls seem to point to a bigger slice going to Santorum than national polls have been indicating. But it may be too late. The one last hope Santorum had was to consolidate the “anybody but Mitt” voters and hope that the media reported a head-to-head Santorum-Romney race. That will not happen now. Gingrich lingered too long.

After Illinois, the media seemed to shift. The race is all but over, they seemed to be saying. The nomination is all but decided. How ironic that Gingrich wanted to stop Romney. Perhaps he has instead prevented Santorum from putting up a serious head-to-head challenge to Romney.

Posted in Elections, Ken Feltman, Ken Feltman at Politico, Politics | Tagged , , , ,

Romney wobbles toward nomination

Posted on March 14, 2012 by

By Ken Feltman

Mitt Romney has some explaining to do. His leading contributors are growing increasingly frustrated. His staff is under attack from those contributors and from pundits and party officials. Polls show him losing ground to Obama. The list of problems just keeps getting bigger.

But Romney is the favorite, despite Rick Santorum’s impressive showings in Alabama and Mississippi. Those two states have large percentages of Evangelical voters. True, Santorum has alienated many Roman Catholics, women and moderates of all stripes. But Alabama and Mississippi provided an almost ideal environment for Santorum and he took advantage of it.

Meantime, Romney dithered and looked foolish talking about how he loved grits. He looked more foolish when he predicted victories in both Southern states shortly before the polls closed.

Surprise! Despite the media coverage that painted Romney as the loser, when the votes in Hawaii and American Samoa were added to those Romney picked up in Alabama and Mississippi, Romney got six more delegates Tuesday than Santorum.

Now comes a big test: Illinois. Unlike the Evangelical-rich Southern states, Illinois is favorable ground for the type campaign Romney wages as well as presenting a more favorable voter profile. But Illinois Republicans are spread throughout the state. Winning in Cook County is not enough. If you look at a map, you see that Illinois stretches further to the south than Richmond, Virginia. That will be fertile Santorum country. So Romney has some work to do.

Before he can even start that work, Romney needs to shore up his financial base. The money folks want answers. A few want heads to roll. Romney is in danger of losing control of the mechanics of his close team.

Top that off by the comment of a key Illinois Romney supporter who is disappointed with the Romney efforts in the state so far: “(Romney) and his team are slow learners.”

We will see.

Posted in Elections, Favorites, Politics | Tagged , ,

Santorum wins Kansas but may pay a price for his focus on religious issues

Posted on March 12, 2012 by

By Ken Feltman

Even a quick review of comments by Kansas focus group participants from last week shows anger and resentment. These are upset people and they are upset with Rick Santorum for his emphasis on his religious beliefs. The frustration spills over to Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, too.

Here’s what we observed: When one person touched on Santorum’s comments or said something about religion, the others in the focus group soon joined in. Eventually, concerns that Santorum’s views are out of the mainstream, even among Catholics, degenerated into fearful and even prejudiced comments – attitudes that may have been hidden by these focus group participants for years.

Next came anger that Santorum had brought religion into the campaign and made it a subject of public discussion. Roman Catholics, perhaps sensing a more vulnerable position in majority Protestant Kansas, were especially vocal in their denunciations of Santorum. Evangelical Protestants either agreed with Santorum or said that he might have gone too far – but not far enough to lose their support.

Clearly, now that religion is in the spotlight, it will continue to be discussed. Probably, it will recede into the background in news coverage and conversations with strangers. It will be brought out in focus groups and discussions among friends.

The comments labeled “Kansas” at the link below show the anxiety, frustration and anger that Santorum triggered. The Radnor Conflict Index will continue to watch the issue but, for now, Evangelicals and other social-issue conservatives continue to support Santorum.

Moderates and especially Catholic women seem to have abandoned him. Will they return? Probably not in sufficient numbers to make the discussion of religion a winning issue for Santorum. Kansas is among the states with the most Evangelical voters and Santorum ran behind Mike Huckabee’s 2008 caucus totals.

Link to focus group comments: I Said

Link to the Conflict Index site: Radnor Conflict Index

Posted in Controversial, Elections, Politics | Tagged , , ,

The Syrian Tinderbox

Posted on March 1, 2012 by

NATIONAL PRESS CLUB MEDIA ALERT

The Syrian Tinderbox:

A psychological profile of Assad and best bets for putting out the fire

WHAT: Release of psychological profile of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and panel discussion

WHERE: National Press Club, Zenger Room, 529 14th St. NW, Washington

WHEN: Wednesday, March , 2012, 12:30 p.m.

WHO:

· Walid Phares, PhD, advisor to the US House Anti-Terrorism Caucus; Author, “The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East”; Washington

· Ekaterina Egorova, PhD, Political Psychologist & Consultant, Personal political consultant to President Boris Yeltsin; Consultant to corporations and political campaigns; Washington and Moscow.

· Magistrate Wolfgang Sobotka, Deputy Governor of the State of Lower Austria

· Michael Granger, Founder & Chairman, Capital Access Forum; Board Member, e-Lynxx Corp.; Serves on a White-House panel of industry leaders convened by the President’s Chief Economic Advisors; Chicago and Washington.

· Ken Feltman (Moderator), Publisher, Radnor Reports; contributor to Politico; past president, American League of Lobbyists and International Association of Political Consultants; Washington.

TOPICS TO BE EXPLORED:

· Will Assad bend or break?

· Is Syria providing a smokescreen to Iran’s ambitions?

· Which opposition parties offer the best bet for regional stability and protecting Western interests?

· Could Syria trigger a slide into global recession?

· Will the Muslim Brotherhood seize political control, as it has in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya?

· How is the Syrian opposition currying favor in Europe?

· With the killing of journalists in Syria and the levying of criminal charges against and departure of US NGO employees in Egypt, is any hope of transparency, human rights, and liberty slipping away?

CONTACTS: Elizabeth Kelley Grace, 561-702-7471, elizabeth@thebuzzagency.net

Ellen Yui, 301-270-8571, ellenyui@yuico.com

BACKGROUND: Not groomed as heir and ascending to the Syrian presidency only after the early death of his elder brother, Bashar al-Assad had difficulty reproducing his father’s model of hard leadership. After an early attempt to modernize the political system, he found many citizens unwilling to live in the Assads’ empire and drew a conclusion typical of politicians with low self-esteem: deadly enemies pose a threat to everything that is dear to him, including the cause of his father, his clan and the party. Steeped in paranoia, a high need for power, a strong sense of danger and no fear of rejection, Bashar al Assad’s psychological profile mirrors those of some of history’s most brutal dictators.

Bashar al-Assad’s regime has massacred more than 5,400 Syrian citizens since March 2011, and the estimated number of political prisoners is reaching 40,000. In her Jan. 31 statement at the United Nations, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the world faces a choice: stand with the people of Syria or be complicit in the Assad regime’s brutal violence. On Jan. 24, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Sen. Charles Schumer introduced a bill imposing sanctions on Syria titled The Syrian Human Rights Accountability Act. Sen. John McCain has recently called to start supporting the Syrian opposition against Assad. “We all know that change is coming to Syria,” Clinton told the UN Security Council. “The question is how many more innocent civilians will die before Assad bows to the inevitable, and how unstable a country he will leave behind.” Hosted by Radnor Reports. For more information, visit radnorreports.com.

Posted in Controversial