by Ken Feltman
A more detailed report on this subject was sent Friday, July 30, 2010, to subscribers to Radnor’s Conflict Index.
The Radnor Conflict Index shows that the Republican drive to regain control of Congress may have stalled. In addition, based upon analysis of our own research, and other research including publicly available polls, we see that attitudes toward President Obama and the Democratic Congress have begun to diverge markedly.
Obama continues to falter with opinion leaders (we call them decision-makers) and the general public. Month by month, Obama falls deeper into reelection trouble. His likelihood of winning another term is far worse today than at the end of May. At this early date, Obama’s standing can change quickly.
The gap between decision-makers and the general public toward Congress has begun to narrow. This has occurred for two reasons: First, the bad news for Democrats is that the decision-makers have become more critical of the Democratic Congress; secondly, the general public is showing dissatisfaction with Republicans and the Tea Party. Combined, these two factors narrow the gap between opinion leaders and everyday voters enough to cause us to conclude that – based solely on the Conflict Index – the Democrats would keep control of both houses of Congress if the election were held today.
Key states and districts that were presumed to be headed into the Republican column in November are now toss ups or leaning Democratic. For example, Senate races in Illinois and Nevada have shifted into the toss up column and California has shifted from leaning Republican to leaning Democratic.
The factors behind these trends were discussed in Radnor’s full report to clients released July 30.
The concept behind the Conflict Index is discussed in more detail on Radnor’s website under the tab “Conflict Indexes.” Please contact us if you are interested in becoming a subscriber to our Conflict Index research and reports.