Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale

Introduction by Ken Feltman:

This is perhaps the most important news about political polls to come out of the 2016 election: Nate Silver and others at FiveThirtyEight have the statistics to establish that some pollsters, intentionally or not, skew their results.

Before you click to his article, please consider how he ends it:

“So … what to do about it? If you’ve read this far, you’re undoubtedly highly interested in polling. So my message for fellow polling geeks is as follows: Let’s not give pollsters so much grief the next time they publish what looks to be an “outlier.” Polling data is noisy and polling is becoming more challenging. The occasional or even not-so-occasional result that deviates from the consensus is sometimes a sign the pollster is doing good, honest work and trusting its data.

    It’s the inliers — the polls that always stay implausibly close to the consensus and always conform to the conventional wisdom about a race — that deserve more scrutiny instead.”

By Nate Silver


It’s time to stop worrying about outliers and start worrying about inliers. Earlier this year, my colleague Harry Enten documented evidence of pollster “herding” — the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign. What’s wrong with the polls agreeing with one another? The problem is that it’s sometimes a case of the blind leading the blind. Take a look at the polls conducted in this year’s Senate race in Iowa….

Source: Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale


About Radnor Reports

Ken Feltman is past-president of the International Association of Political Consultants and the American League of Lobbyists. He is retired chairman of Radnor Inc., an international political consulting and government relations firm in Washington, D.C. Feltman founded the U.S. and European Conflict Indexes in 1988. The indexes have predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election beginning in 1988, plus the outcome of several European elections. In May of 2010, the Conflict Index was used by university students in Egypt. The Index predicted the fall of the Mubarak government within the next year.
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