What The Bork And Thomas Confirmation Fights Tell Us About Kavanaugh

By Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight

The process of confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court promises to be a Senate classic — grandstanding and softball questions galore. Some of those senators will likely also feel the process’s effects in the midterm elections, at least according to popular political wisdom.

Democrats in red states will have to navigate the realities of electoral politics: How will voters react if their senators go against President Trump’s conservative nominee? Will they be punished for a vote against the president?

That’s a tough question to answer statistically.

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About Radnor Reports

Ken Feltman is past-president of the International Association of Political Consultants and the American League of Lobbyists. He is retired chairman of Radnor Inc., an international political consulting and government relations firm in Washington, D.C. Feltman founded the U.S. and European Conflict Indexes in 1988. The indexes have predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election beginning in 1988, plus the outcome of several European elections. In May of 2010, the Conflict Index was used by university students in Egypt. The Index predicted the fall of the Mubarak government within the next year.
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