By Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight
The process of confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court promises to be a Senate classic — grandstanding and softball questions galore. Some of those senators will likely also feel the process’s effects in the midterm elections, at least according to popular political wisdom.
Democrats in red states will have to navigate the realities of electoral politics: How will voters react if their senators go against President Trump’s conservative nominee? Will they be punished for a vote against the president?
That’s a tough question to answer statistically.