David Murrin’s Murrinations-
So far we have called the highs of the equity markets accurately and have seen the first significant drops which coincide with ratcheting up of US-China tension and the Fed lowering rates in recognition that all is not well with the economy. We can feel confident that stocks are now on the way down in a very significant bear market that could reach 2008 lows.
Meanwhile, the traditional safe havens have been kicking into play with gold showing life and the more secure bond markets in America and Germany rallying as people make equity to bond switches.
The industrial commodities of copper and iron ore are looking poised to drop out of bed as global demand declines. Last but not least, the dollar index looks set to recommence its decline, whilst emerging markets globally look set to take a similar swan song dive.
The anatomy of one financial crisis is never the same as the one preceding it due to the mechanism of alternation of collective behaviour.