Harry Enten of CNN –
Aggregating our last three CNN polls, Trump has a 44% approval rating and 52% disapproval rating among voters. On the economy, it’s been the inverse: 53% approval and 42% disapproval. If 2020 turns out to be a referendum on Trump’s overall performance, he’s an underdog.
Trump, though, would up his odds significantly by winning over half of the 9% of voters who like him on the economy but not overall — and he would be a clear favorite if he won the votes of all those who approved of him on the economy but not overall.
So how can Trump pull of this feat? A look at the numbers suggests he’ll likely need to do something very different than continue with his current base-first, hardline-immigration and racial-resentment electoral strategy.
Trump will probably need to appeal well beyond his older, less educated and white Republican base.