Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight –
We are now about six months from the general election, and while the national party conventions won’t make it official until August, President Trump will face former Vice President Joe Biden in November (barring something very unexpected happening). So the question we’re left with now is: When should you start paying attention to the general election polls?
We at FiveThirtyEight have cautioned you not to take early general election polls too seriously, but the answer for when you should tune in isn’t exactly straightforward either. There’s actually a pretty big debate over just how meaningful early general election polls are.