Does The GOP Belong To Trump?

FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat.

Today, we’re partnering with The Weekly Standard to explore a question that everyone seems to have an opinion on: To what extent does the Republican Party now belong to President Trump?

“Trump actually doesn’t have particularly high “strong” approval numbers. There are a lot of voters with lukewarm feelings toward him. And some sort of loyalty to the Republican Party was important in getting them to get out to vote in 2016.”

“Organized animosity toward Hillary Clinton, more than love of Trump. At least in November 2016.”


Posted in Donald Trump, FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton, Republicans

Is Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court Nomination in Big Trouble?

By John Cassidy in the New Yorker

So much for all the talk. The real question is: Will the White House and Republican leaders actually allow a potentially sensational set of hearings, with all the political risks that would entail, just weeks before the midterm elections in which they are already struggling mightily to attract women’s votes in key suburban districts?

Or will they decide to cut their losses and withdraw the Kavanaugh nomination? We’ll find out soon.

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Posted in Congress, Controversial, House of Representatives, Supreme Court

How much does science knowledge influence people’s views on climate change and energy issues?

By Cary Funk of Pew Research Center

Many in the scientific community believe that if the American public were more informed about the science behind climate change and energy issues, people would hold views that aligned more closely with those of scientific experts.

But how much people know about science only modestly and inconsistently correlates with their attitudes about climate and energy issues, while partisanship is a stronger factor in people’s beliefs.

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Posted in Climate, Controversial, Pew Research, Politics

Trump admin cuts number of refugees U.S. will admit to lowest level in four decades

by Julia Ainsley, Abigail Williams and Dan De Luce of NBC News

The Trump administration announced Monday that it would limit the number of refugees admitted into the United States in the next fiscal year to 30,000, the lowest number in more than 38 years.

For this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, the Trump administration’s cap was 45,000 — the lowest number set since the State Department data began keeping refugee data back to 1980. Even then, the U.S. did not meet the ceiling this year and only admitted about 21,000.

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Posted in Controversial, Donald Trump, Immigrants

Is Trump’s Legitimacy At Risk?

By Julia Azari of Marquette University for FiveThirtyEight

Has the guilt of Trump’s aides affected his ability to govern?

Max Boot, a writer for the Washington Post, addressed this question in a recent article: “Trump is now an illegitimate president whose election is tainted by fraud,” he wrote.

Illegitimate? That word caught my eye, in part because presidents rely upon legitimacy to enact their agenda. Without it, their power can quickly erode.

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Posted in Democracy, Donald Trump, government, Paul Manafort, Washington Post