FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat.
Today, we’re partnering with The Weekly Standard to explore a question that everyone seems to have an opinion on: To what extent does the Republican Party now belong to President Trump?
“Trump actually doesn’t have particularly high “strong” approval numbers. There are a lot of voters with lukewarm feelings toward him. And some sort of loyalty to the Republican Party was important in getting them to get out to vote in 2016.”
“Organized animosity toward Hillary Clinton, more than love of Trump. At least in November 2016.”
By John Cassidy in the New Yorker
So much for all the talk. The real question is: Will the White House and Republican leaders actually allow a potentially sensational set of hearings, with all the political risks that would entail, just weeks before the midterm elections in which they are already struggling mightily to attract women’s votes in key suburban districts?
Or will they decide to cut their losses and withdraw the Kavanaugh nomination? We’ll find out soon.
By Cary Funk of Pew Research Center
Many in the scientific community believe that if the American public were more informed about the science behind climate change and energy issues, people would hold views that aligned more closely with those of scientific experts.
But how much people know about science only modestly and inconsistently correlates with their attitudes about climate and energy issues, while partisanship is a stronger factor in people’s beliefs.
by Julia Ainsley, Abigail Williams and Dan De Luce of NBC News
The Trump administration announced Monday that it would limit the number of refugees admitted into the United States in the next fiscal year to 30,000, the lowest number in more than 38 years.
For this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, the Trump administration’s cap was 45,000 — the lowest number set since the State Department data began keeping refugee data back to 1980. Even then, the U.S. did not meet the ceiling this year and only admitted about 21,000.
By Julia Azari of Marquette University for FiveThirtyEight
Has the guilt of Trump’s aides affected his ability to govern?
Max Boot, a writer for the Washington Post, addressed this question in a recent article: “Trump is now an illegitimate president whose election is tainted by fraud,” he wrote.
Illegitimate? That word caught my eye, in part because presidents rely upon legitimacy to enact their agenda. Without it, their power can quickly erode.